Long a favorite of consumers and publishers, China’s e-commerce short-video platforms may be losing steam in book sales. Image – Getty: Qin PinLi
From China Publishers Magazine
Market Concentration: Potentially More Ahead
In 2023 and 2024, China’s publishing industry has faced unprecedented opportunities and challenges driven by changes in the external environment, including the economic landscape and technological advancements.
The economic environment has led to a decline in profit margins for many publishing institutions. Additionally, China’s continued decrease in birth rates has negatively impacted the children’s book sector, which previously held the largest market share.
Technological advancements, particularly in AI, may also have implications for the publishing industry. While technological progress can enhance efficiency, the fundamental changes it could bring will require the industry to adapt.
Primary Topic: Restoring Growth
According to data from Beijing OpenBook, China’s book retail market shifted from a negative growth rate in 2022 to a positive year-on-year increase of 4.72 percent in 2023, reaching a market value of 91.2 billion yuan (US$12.9 billion). The total number of active book titles in the overall retail market also increased by 1.55 percent, with the number of new titles rising by 7.3 percent.
China’s book market has experienced fluctuations since 2020. In 2023, as the first year after the pandemic, positive growth returned after the second quarter, mainly driven by online retail channels, including platform e-commerce and short-video e-commerce. These channels further expanded in the fourth quarter, leading to overall growth in 2023.
In the first half of 2024, the total market value declined by 6.2 percent year-on-year. However, compared to the first quarter, the decline narrowed as the market entered the period of significant book promotions through online channels.
Main Growth Driver: Short-Video Channels
Book shopping in China. Statisics indicate that in 2023, physical bookstores held an 11.93-percent share of the market. Image – Getty: Qin PinLi
The role of different book sales channels in China has been continuously evolving. In recent years, online stores became primary book sales channels, dominated by e-commerce platforms including JD.com, Dangdang, and Tmall. However, the landscape has changed again. Short-video e-commerce platforms like Douyin (owned by ByteDance, the parent company of TikTok) have rapidly grown to form the second-largest book sales channel in China.
Seven of the Top 10 leading publishers in China—129 out of the top 200 publishers—saw more than 10 percent of their sales revenue coming from short-video e-commerce channels in 2023.
Also in 2023, online e-commerce remained the largest book sales channel in China, accounting for 41.46 percent of the total market value. Short-video e-commerce followed at 26.67 percent. Physical bookstores held an 11.93-percent share of the market.
In the first half of 2024, book sales through short-video channels continued to grow, with a year-over-year increase of 18.34 percent. However, this growth rate has noticeably slowed as the number of short-video users have nearly matched the number of mobile Internet users , according to the China Internet Network Information Center.
Concentration in Top-Selling Books
The top one percent of best-selling titles in China contributes nearly 60 percent of the market’s total sales revenue, and the top 5 percent of titles contributes more than 80 percent of revenue.
Related article: China Bestsellers in August: Charting Summer’s End. Image – Getty: TK Kurikawa
Short-video platforms have contributed to this trend, significantly increasing the market share of books selling more than 100,000 copies, while sales of these same titles have declined in traditional channels.
However, debut books sold through short-video channels are seeing a shorter sales duration, with 16.4 percent selling for only one month and more than 60 percent ceasing to be actively sold six months after their initial release.
In contrast, debut books sold through other channels sustain a longer sales cycle.
Potential Trends in China’s Publishing Industry
The Chinese publishing industry is witnessing several significant trends that may continue to be felt in the near term.
Market concentration: Resources are increasingly concentrated among leading publishing houses. These top enterprises are developing formidable advantages in terms of resources, capital, market share, and talent. The market is favoring major book brands, which may marginalize other publishers. As technology advances and the industry becomes more capitalized and market-driven, this polarization is expected to deepen further. Some publishers have begun reducing their publishing scale proactively and cutting low-profit ventures. In the future, publishers lacking competitive and distinctive features may gradually be edged out of the market.
Content competition: The competition for high-quality copyrights is fierce, while efforts to export domestic copyrights are also intensifying. Consequently, the ability to create compelling, original content will be the critical task for all publishers. The share of foreign-imported works may continue to fluctuate or even decline, while publishers will demand higher quality in terms of content, illustration, design, and production. Conversely, as the quality of domestic original works improves, Chinese publishers will increasingly seek to promote their own content through copyright exports and international collaborations.
Technology is transforming the publishing industry: Chinese publishers have been exploring ways to integrate traditional and digital publishing. This year, publishers have started using AI in areas such as topic evaluation, translation, and content generation. For example, Citic Press Group began using AI technology in areas including topic evaluation and translation. Guomai Culture invested in several technology companies and is developing AI projects in areas including proofreading, comics, and reading avatars. Chinese Media Corporation (CMC) acquired a 58-percent stake in Longwise Media, China’s leading AI marketing company.
A slow-down of short-video: The contribution of short-video platforms to book retail is gradually diminishing. In the first half of 2024, the growth rate of short-video e-commerce platforms, which had previously experienced rapid expansion, continued to slow down. The promotions and low prices offered by these platforms have put unprecedented profit pressure on Chinese publishers. More and more people are realizing that a book market driven by low-price competition is unsustainable.
This article is appearing here as part of the ongoing cooperation between China Publishers Magazine and Publishing Perspectives. You can read an extended version of this article in China Publishers Magazine’s “Special Report for the 2024 Frankfurt Book Fair.” Or pick up a print copy at Frankfurter Buchmesse.
More from Publishing Perspectives on the Chinese book publishing market is here. Our monthly China Bestsellers update, presented in association with Beijing OpenBook, is here.
