Main Street Books in Davidson, North Carolina, a shot made in 2019, the first of the five years of StatShot data now recalculated by Industry Insight for the Association of American Publishers. Image – Getty: J. Michael Jones
By Porter Anderson, Editor-in-Chief | @Porter_Anderson
A 95-Percent Confidence Level in Recalculated Reports
In its release today (August 22) of the StatShot Annual Report for calendar year 2023, the Association of American Publishers (AAP) reports a top-line figure of US$29.9 billion in revenue for the United States’ publishing industry for books and course materials in both print and digital formats—over last year’s reported $28.10 billion. The organization says that this represents “a minor 0.8-percent decline when compared to final stated numbers for 2022.
“It is a 6.1-percent increase over the pre-pandemic figure of $28.2 billion total recorded in 2019.” Behind those figures is a change in the figures for the last five years.
The AAP now is having the same company, a firm called Industry Insights, compile the data for both the annual and monthly reports.
As the company puts it, “Industry Insights analyzed a wide range of data sources, including US Census data, direct survey responses, AAP’s historical StatShot survey data and reports, Bowker’s Books In Print dataset, Circana’s BookScan tools, self-publishing and digital publishing trends, government economic data, and various publicly available articles and information sources related to the US publishing industry and individual publishers.
“Based on this analysis, Industry Insight has calculated that previous industry estimates were understated.
Source: Association of American Publishers (AAP), August 21, 2024
“Consequently, Industry Insights recalculated the industry estimates, resulting in higher figures for each year, except for 2021. The results of the industry estimate are accurate at a 95-percent confidence level, with a margin of error ranging from plus or minus 6 to 10 percentage points.”
To the right, you’re seeing five years of industry revenues in the States by category, as recalculated by Industry Insights.
Particularly in an election season, with polling data flying at Americans from every angle, anyone can tell you that a margin of error of plus or minus 6 to 10 points is not nothing. In fact, that’s a pretty big margin of error. This revamping of the approach and five years of figures may also be the reason that the 2023 annual report has arrived some three months later in the year than the 2022 report was released last year.
Because our Publishing Perspectives professional readership stands in the international sphere, impacted by many more influences than the US market, the granularity of such adjustments made behind the report are of less consequence than is the sense for general trends. The report itself, at 100 pages, is sold by the organization for $495.
Our process here is to register some of the high points of the report, and not necessarily in the order in which they were presented to us. We invite you to query the Association of American Publishers on any points that may seem to you to need specific explanation, particularly with this change in approach made by Industry Insights as it took over the annual report account.
Estimated Industry Revenue Points
The trade sector (commercial books), which is the States’ industry’s largest category, decreased by 1.4 percent to an estimated $18.7 billion. Beyond the trade:
- Higher education revenue increased by 1.5 percent to $3.9 billion.
- PreK-12 education increased 0.3 percent to $5.2 billion.
- Professional books increased 1.5 percent to $1.7 billion.
- University presses decreased 9.8 percent to $0.6 billion.
Trade Digital Formats
- In the trade, digital formats taken together (digital audio and ebooks) accounted for 23 percent of all revenue for 2023, representing an increase of 9.4 percent on a year-over-year basis.
- Trade digital audio only (not including ebooks) reportedly “increased again this year, climbing 14.2 percent to $2.3 billion” while ebooks alone saw a further but slight decline: down 0.2 percent to $2.4 billion.
- By contrast in print, hardback revenue outpaced paperbacks in 2023, the report says, with hardcovers rising 1.1 percent to $8.0 billion as paperbacks went down 4.4 percent to $7.7 billion.
“In the industry overall,” notes from the AAP say, “print formats accounted for 55 percent of all revenue for 2023, a decrease of 2 percent on a year-over-year basis. In the trade, print formats accounted for 72 percent of all revenue for 2023, representing a decrease of 0.8 percent on a year-over-year basis.
Retail Channels
Source: Association of American Publishers (AAP), August 21, 2024
For publishers’ sales, online retail channels are the largest category, not a surprise to many who work in the American market. This won’t soothe those who hold strong feelings for brick-and-mortar stores, nostalgic or otherwise, but of course it’s the digital retail capacity of the American market that provided a vehicle to strong sales during pandemic conditions and it’s arguable that some consumers new to online retail may have discovered a lasting new comfort level with it during those years.
The fact that those channels are digital, however, does not mean that the bulk of the product is. In 2023, 54 percent of total sales were in print formats, and 14 percent of total sales were from digital formats.
Online retail in 2023 grew by 5.0 percent to $11 billion. “Publisher sales via online retail channels were more than double those of physical retail channels, which came in at $5.5 billion, a decrease of 0.9 percent year-over-year,” per the report.
Direct sales grew in 2023 up 2.1 percent to $4.9 billion.
Methodology Notes
On methodology, the AAP writes, “The calendar year 2023 StatShot Annual Report is the independent work of Industry Insights, an expert research and data analytics firm. The report offers a valuable financial overview of the book publishing industry by reporting estimated and aggregate revenue and reported unit sales.
More from Publishing Perspectives on industry statistics is here, more on the Association of American Publishers is here, more of our coverage of AAP StatShot reports is here, and more on the US market is here.
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